Istanbul Canal Megaproject Raises Global Concerns

           Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan recently launched his biggest and boldest one to date megaproject canal Istanbul. Canal Istanbul is a 45 kilometer waterway connecting the black sea to the Mediterranean.  It would provide a new route for tankers and the government hopes it will boost turkey's revenues but many say the multi-billion dollar project is far too costly given turkey's economic struggles and might cause an environmental disaster.

                            

          The colossal project could change Istanbul’s geography forever. A man-made waterway that will flow through new urban districts with new settlements for hundreds of thousands of people. Canal Istanbul is the largest infrastructure project turkey has ever seen. It’s long been a dream of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. 

 

“We are starting a new page in the history of turkey's development today we are adding a new step to the path of progress for our country and the strengthening of our nation” ~ Recep Tayyip Erdogan

 

       The controversial project is pitting turkey's president against Istanbul’s mayor.

 

“We are against it because it threatens Istanbul completely, its water its nature its security and earthquake safety, it threatens life in this city” ~Mayor of Istanbul

But why is the canal so unpopular and why does Erdogan want to build it anyway?

              To understand why the Turkish government wants a new canal you have to look at the one that's already there, the Bosporus, it's one of the world's busiest shipping lanes, more ships transit the Bosporus than the Suez and Panama Canal combined.  According to the Turkish president a second waterway is needed to prevent accidents. The 45 kilometer long canal has an official price tag of 15 billion dollars. Ship, the government argues will no longer have to wait days to enter the Bosporus and turkey will collect fees on them.

 

          Critics say president Erdogan's dream is an environmental nightmare. The canal will cut through agricultural land and forests often referred to as one of the few remaining green lungs of Istanbul. It threatens marine ecosystems and crucial water reservoirs.

 

       The president however hopes to boost the construction sector, create thousands of jobs and turn the gears of an ailing economy. The louder the opposing voices grow it seems the more determined he is.

 Why is president Erdogan so determined to go ahead with this mega project?

        In his nearly 20 years in power, president Erdogan has launched a number of mega projects,  think of istanbul's new gigantic airport for example,  but this project, the Istanbul canal,  really has an entirely new dimension and Erdogan said he would go ahead with it whether critics like it or not.

         His opponent said he is using the project and the promises that come with it. foreign investment a boost of turkey's revenues, to mobilize his base because a series of opinion polls show support for the president and for his islamist rooted akp at historic lows. Now elections aren't scheduled until 2023 but there are calls for early elections and the economy is Erdogan's weak spot.

                    

             There are reports that much of the financing is coming from china.  There is speculation that china could play a role in financing and building the canal but the Turkish government has so far not confirmed these reports. The official price tag of the project is 15 billion US dollars but some estimate the real figure to be four times as much.  This is an astronomical amount of money for a country with depleted foreign reserves; double-digit inflation and a massive foreign adapt. There are many question marks over where the money for this project is going to come from.

         The new canal represents a point of tension with Russia right now the Bosporus is the only connection between the black sea and the Mediterranean and there is the so-called montreux convention a treaty signed in 1936 which limits the size and access of foreign warships to the black sea and Russia considers this convention vital to maintaining the black sea as a Russian sphere of influence. 

             If the new canal would not be covered by this convention this could lead to an increase of that's the Russian fear here of US or NATO warships in the black sea especially at a time when NATO Russian relations are very  tense and tensions there are increasing. The Turkish government says the montreux convention will remain intact but there have been some ambiguous remarks in the past and that led to a lot of speculation about the geopolitical dimension of this project.